Reading Review

Guardian Unlimited writers' prediction: 14th. Odds: 1,800-1

Second-season syndrome: it's the first cliché pundits proffer when assessing Reading, as if it's something that could sneak up on Steve Coppell and take him by surprise. Whereas in reality the manager, being neither ignorant nor stupid, has been planning for it ever since it became clear his side wouldn't be relegated last season.

In keeping with Coppell's composed character and the team's tidy style, all the preparations for the new campaign have been about stability. Rather than emulate West Ham and rush into the transfer market to procure ritzy stars who'd lend lustre to Reading's name, the club kept calm and its first move was to secure the services of its existing players. Kevin Doyle, Stephen Hunt, Dave Kitson and André Bikey all agreed new contracts; Nicky Shorey and Leroy Lita may have declined similar deals but still have two years remaining on their current ones. Only Steve Sidwell has left, meaning Reading have avoided the talent haemorrhage that afflicted Wigan before last term.

Another reputed cause of second-season syndrome is opponents' increased familiarity with a side, and even a sense of complacency from that side itself. These symptoms usually become apparent in the second half of the club's first season when, having effectively ensured their survival, they loosen up and in doing so let down their guard: in 2005-06, both West Ham and Wigan fell from positive goal differences in their first 19 matches (Wigan +11, West Ham +3) to negative ones in the second 19 (Wigan -18, West Ham -3); they scored marginally more, but conceded much more. Reading, by contrast, increased their goal difference in the second half of last season (+5 to +12) by scoring more and conceding fewer. In short, though their opponents may have been more familiar with them, they too became better able to cope with what the Premiership threw at them.

That last fact also shows that getting off to a flying start isn't as crucial as often claimed. Which is probably just as well, because Reading begin this season with a trip to Old Trafford before hosting Chelsea. So even if those two matches yield defeats, beating Everton in the next game would enable them to equal the start they had last season, when they also lost two of their first three. If we bear in mind that between September and November they also had a six-week spell when they faced all of the big four in the Premiership, taking just one point off them, then recovered to win their next four matches, then we appreciate that Reading have real resilience.

Having said all that, Reading are unlikely to repeat last season's eighth place. Like the teams that finished above them, most of those that came below them have spent royally in the summer and though lavish expenditure certainly doesn't guarantee success, it's likely that one or more of West Ham, Portsmouth, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Fulham, Manchester City and Sunderland will manage to make their superior resources pay.

Reading's major investment has been in record signing Emerse Faé, whose strength and drive are similar to Sidwell's - though despite his ferocious shooting, he's yet to develop similar finesse in front of goal. Brynjar Gunnarsson deputised diligently for Sidwell towards the end of last season without suggesting he has the all-round game to be more than a stopgap; Faé seems more like the real deal. Though on the evidence of an impressive Peace Cup showing, Kalifa Cissé could ultimately do what the brilliantly busy Hunt did to Seol Ki-Hyeon last season: supplant the record signing.

Up front, there's no obvious reason to expect Doyle and Lita to stop scoring (apart from sustaining an injury while stretching in bed, of course). Some have said they'll be remembered in the same way as Marcus Stewart, but he was a journeyman who enjoyed one great season, whereas Reading's duo are youngsters on the up. The only real question concerning their strikeforce is whether Kitson can provide depth by rediscovering his pre-injury form.

At the back, Shorey should continue to excel, especially if he nurtures ambitions of moving to a bigger club, and the centre is secure: it could have been otherwise after Ibrahima Sonko got injured last January, but Bikey filled the gap well. And when he goes to the African Nations Cup, yet another cut-price signing from Cork could come to the fore: Alan Bennett is an uncompromising yet cultured centreback, who in the summer became a full Irish international and will spend the first half of this season advancing his adaptation to the English game while on loan at Southampton. If he doesn't progress as planned, there's always Michael Duberry. Or, perhaps more reassuringly, a careful dip into the transfer market.

In: Kalifa Cissé (Boavista - £600,000); Emerse Faé (Nantes - £2.5m); André Bikey (loan made permanent from Lokomotiv Moscow - £1m).

Out: Steve Sidwell (Chelsea - free); Greg Halford (Sunderland - £2.5m).