Middlesbrough Review

Guardian Unlimited writers' prediction: 18th Odds: 1750-1

Summer may be a time when everyone is entitled to dream but the disparity between fan expectation and reality on Teesside is glaring. Log on to most Middlesbrough fan forums and you'll find talk of top-half finishes and possibly a return to Europe; step into a bookies and you'll find them among the favourites for relegation, with odds as short as 4-1.

Not that high hopes are entirely without foundation: Gareth Southgate's first season in charge was a solid if uneventful one, and they actually finished one point (with 46) and two positions (12th) better off than they had under Steve McClaren in 2005-06 (albeit without the distractions of a European run). They were also one of only two teams (Newcastle being the other) to take points off each of the top four. Since then the core of the team has arguably been strengthened, with the arrival of Luke Young at right-back bolstering a backline that already featured the resurgent Jonathan Woodgate, fans' player of the year Emanuel Pogatetz and hard-working Andrew Taylor.

Tuncay Sanli, furthermore, could prove the bargain of the summer after arriving on a free from Fenerbahçe. Capable of turning his hand to pretty much any forward role but most likely to feature on the right wing for Boro, Sanli's direct running and preference for cutting inside make him the perfect foil to the touchline-hugging Stewart Downing. He has an eye for goal, too, as testified by 59 strikes in 154 games at Fenerbahçe.

But if all this suggests Middlesbrough optimists are not blind, they are certainly suffering from tunnel vision. Of the five teams between them and the drop zone last year, only Wigan have spent less this summer (and even then only if you count Woodgate, whose loan deal was made permanent in April). For Boro, treading water may not be enough. Worryingly, they probably aren't even equipped to do that.

The void created by Mark Viduka's defection to Newcastle will be harder to fill than the striker's own belly. Call him fat, call him lazy (everyone else does), but Viduka scores goals, and last season his 14 in 29 Premiership games - 22 of them starts - accounted for almost a third of Middlesbrough's league scoring. Jérémie Aliadière is not a like-for-like replacement: outside of the Carling Cup he scored just once in 39 games for Arsenal, and last season looked more at home on the wing than up front.

Southgate has shown an admirable, almost romantic dedication to open, attacking football, but such values will count against Boro if they can't summon the end product to raise their art from the sumptuous to the meaningful. Some players and even the manager have voiced concerns about the club's propensity for over-elaboration in attack this pre-season.

Keeping Yakubu - who struck 12 in 36 Premiership games last season - should be an imperative, yet rumours persist that he will end up back at Portsmouth. Even if he does remain, Boro will have to do without him for several weeks mid-season when he takes part in the African Nations Cup with Nigeria.

Getting off to a good start, then, is crucial, but here again the omens are bad. Knee surgery looks to have ruled both Pogatetz and Woodgate out until at least September, whilst an ankle problem has done likewise for back-up centre-half Robert Huth. Trips to Wigan and Fulham this month, as well as a home game against Newcastle, only serve to up the ante.

Ultimately, Middlesbrough should survive - there are enough inferior teams out there to keep them afloat (though most of my colleagues disagree, which is why the prediction above - an aggregate of all our forecasts - is for 18th). But they cannot afford complacency. Southgate's honeymoon is over; this term we discover if he has the wits to make a marriage thrive.

In: Jonathan Woodgate (Real Madrid - £7m), Jérémie Aliadière (Arsenal - £2m), Tuncay Sanli (free), Luke Young (Charlton - £2.5m).

Out: Abel Xavier (LA Galaxy - free), Stuart Parnaby (Birmingham - free), Danny Graham (Carlisle - free), Mark Viduka (Newcastle - free).