Derby Review

Guardian Unlimited writers' prediction: 20th Odds: 7,500-1

There's always one. The team that gets promoted against all odds and who, from day one, you just know are going down. They arrive in the Premiership with a prom-night ingenuousness and lust for life, but soon find out that the real world isn't quite as advertised in the prospectus.

It's hard to see how Derby can buck a trend that, since the Premiership's inception, has included Swindon, Leicester, Bolton, Crystal Palace, Barnsley, Wolves and Watford. Like Watford last season they have a very, very good young manager but, ultimately, like Watford last season, their players just aren't up to the job. It may be going too far to tag them 'donkey Derby', but some of the players would probably struggle to get a game for the top sides' reserves.

Not that that should tarnish the upcoming season. Derby may be among the Premiership's have-nots, but their attitude will be to 'ave it for the next nine months, to enjoy the ride come what may. After all, it is better to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all.

Billy Davies, a fighter first and second and a lover third, will disagree, of course, and he has been busy in the transfer market all summer. Robert Earnshaw, a Craig Bellamy-lite figure even down to his innate modesty, should get a minimum of 10 league goals a season in any company. But he, along with other signings like Tyrone Mears and Claude Davis, belong to that Neil Redfearn group of players stuck on the mezzanine between English football's second tier - outstanding in the Championship, doomed to struggle (usually in vain) against relegation in the Premiership.

It will be fascinating to see how the richly gifted Giles Barnes copes in the sort of exalted company he will hope to keep for the rest of his career. For most of his team-mates, however, this is a one-year only deal - they might as well enjoy it while it lasts.

In: Robert Earnshaw (Norwich - £3.5m), Tyrone Mears (West Ham - £1m), Andy Todd (Blackburn - free), Ben Hinchcliffe (Preston - free), Claude Davis (Sheff Utd - £3m), Lewis Price (Ipswich - undisclosed), Andy Griffin (Portsmouth - undisclosed).

Out: Lee Grant (Sheff Wed - free), Ryan Smith (Millwall - £150,000), Paul Peschisolido (Luton - free), Paul Boertien (Walsall - free), Lee Camp (QPR- £300,000), Steven Cann (Rotherham - free).